# Residual Distribution Moments by KAOPEN Tercile

| Statistic | Closed | Mid | Open |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 2090 | 1477 | 1775 |
| Mean | -1.3358 | -0.5215 | 0.1056 |
| SD | 9.2229 | 9.7297 | 10.2310 |
| SD 95% CI | [6.980, 11.280] | [8.036, 11.439] | [7.115, 13.542] |
| Skewness | -3.0100 | 0.3814 | -6.5707 |
| Excess Kurtosis | 29.0035 | 9.9772 | 151.3394 |
| VaR5 (pp GDP) | -14.449 | -15.889 | -13.331 |
| VaR5 95% CI | [-18.578, -11.453] | [-18.279, -11.538] | [-17.120, -10.024] |
| VaR10 (pp GDP) | -10.050 | -10.114 | -8.369 |
| CVaR5 (pp GDP) | -26.435 | -23.502 | -24.223 |
| CVaR5 95% CI | [-34.773, -17.684] | [-27.329, -19.145] | [-31.203, -17.757] |
| CVaR10 (pp GDP) | -19.205 | -18.055 | -17.369 |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|
| Levene F | | 1.943 | p=0.1434 |
| Brown-Forsythe F | | 1.943 | p=0.1434 |

*Residuals from PanelGLS: ca_gdp ~ Z₁ + Z₂ + Z₃ + fiscal_bal + NFA_lag + growth. KAOPEN deliberately excluded from mean equation.*
*VaR/CVaR are left-tail (worst CA outcomes). Bootstrap: 500 country-cluster iterations. 95% CIs in brackets.*